1. Kev Lag Luam Txheej Txheem
Txij li thaum pib ntawm 2026, lub ntiaj teb no semiconductor silicon wafer kev ua lag luam tau undergone nws feem ntau profound structural hloov nyob rau hauv ntau tshaj peb xyoos. Tom qab kev poob qis ntawm 2023-2024, wafer kev ua lag luam pib maj mam rov qab nyob rau hauv ib nrab xyoo 2025 thiab, los ntawm Q3 2026, tau nkag mus rau lub voj voog nce tshiab.
Lub Cim Tseem Ceeb:Kev xa khoom thoob ntiaj teb silicon wafer mus txog 3,740 lab square inches (MSI) hauv Q2 2026, nce kwv yees li 8.2% xyoo-rau- xyoo. Kev siv peev xwm rau 12-nti (300mm) wafers rov qab mus rau ntau dua 92%, thaum 8-nti (200mm) kev siv mus txog 88%.
2. Ib Daim Ntawv Qhia Tag Nrho -Nqe Nqe nce mus ib txhis
2.1 Cov Nqe Kev sib kis Cov saw
Q2‒Q3 2026 tau pom qhov tsis tau muaj dua los ntawm kev nce nqi ntawm kev lag luam wafer:
|
Lub hli |
Kev tshwm sim |
Qhov ntau thiab tsawg Wafer |
Ntsiab Lus |
|
Tsib Hlis 2026 |
Shin-Etsu thiab SUMCO tau tshaj tawm tus nqi nce ntxiv |
12-nti |
Tshiab ntev - nqe lus cog lus tus nqi nce los ntawm 10‒ 15%; cov nqi tau nce ua ntej |
|
Lub Rau Hli 2026 |
GlobalWafers ua raws; Suav manufacturers teb |
Feem ntau 12-nti, nrog 8-nti nram qab no |
Zing Semi, Lionmicro thiab lwm cov neeg tsim khoom hauv tsev tau tsa tus nqi hauv tandem |
|
Lub Yim Hli 2026 |
Tshiab puag ncig ntawm 12-nti daim ntawv cog lus ua tiav |
12-nti |
Cov nqi cog lus tshiab nce ntxiv 10% +; 6-nti / 8-nti ua raws li kev cai |
2.2 Cov tsav tsheb Qab tus Nqe Nce
Qhov kev sib tw ntawm tus nqi nce qhov sib txawv ntawm cov voj voog dhau los:
- Tus tsav tsheb 1 - tawg AI/HPC xav tau. TSMC qhov kev nthuav dav ntxiv ntawm CoWoS lub peev xwm ntim tau zoo tau ua rau muaj kev xav tau zoo rau 12-inch silicon interposers thiab SOI wafers, tawm hauv high-end wafers nyob rau hauv luv luv.
- Tus tsav tsheb 2 - Ceev ceev nco rov qab los. Samsung, SK hynix thiab Micron tab tom khiav ntawm kev siv tag nrho; lawv cov kev yuav khoom ntawm 12- ntiv tes polished thiab epitaxial wafers loj hlob ntau dua 15% xyoo-on-xyoo hauv Q2 2026.
- Tus tsav tsheb 3 - Kev loj hlob ruaj khov hauv cov khoom siv hluav taws xob thiab MEMS.Kev nce EV nkag mus ua ke nrog kev lag luam automation thov tau khaws 8-nti wafer thov kom muaj zog. STMicroelectronics, Infineon thiab lwm yam IDMs txuas ntxiv khiav lawv 8-nti kab ntawm kev siv siab.
- Tus tsav tsheb 4 - Raw khoom nqi hla-dhau. Cov nqi siab -purity polysilicon thiab hluav taws xob- qib roj av tau nce txij li xyoo 2025, ua rau cov neeg tsim khoom wafers tag nrho cov paj thiab ua rau tus nqi nce ntxiv.
3. Lub Ntiaj Teb Wafer Toj roob hauv pes tab tom hloov kho
3.1 Cov neeg tsim khoom Nyij Pooj Dominate Supply
Shin-Etsu thiab SUMCO ua ke tuav kwv yees li 50% ntawm lub ntiaj teb silicon wafer ua lag luam, nrog rau qhov tshwj xeeb tshaj yog muaj zog nyob rau hauv siab -kawg 12-inch wafers. Ob lub tuam txhab txuas ntxiv muaj peev xwm nthuav dav hauv 2026. Ntiaj teb kev ua lag luam faib faib:
-
Shin-Etsu
28%
-
SUMCO
22%
-
GlobalWafers
17%
-
Siltronic
12%
-
Zing Semi
5%
3.2 Kev hloov pauv hauv tsev Accelerates hauv Suav teb
Ntsiab Txoj Kev: Tus kheej - tus nqi txaus ntawm Suav - ua silicon wafers yog nce sai heev. Hauv tsev 12-inch wafer muaj peev xwm yuav tsum ncav cuag 1.5 lab wafers / hli hauv 2026, nrog rau tus kheej txaus tus nqi nce los ntawm kwv yees li 15% hauv 2023 mus rau ntau dua 25%.
|
Chaw tsim tshuaj paus |
Khoom Muag Khoom Muag |
Kev tsim kho tshiab kawg |
|
Zing Semi |
12-nti polished / epitaxial wafers |
Theem II muaj peev xwm ntawm 300k wafers / hli ramped mus rau 80%; neeg tsim nyog accelerating |
|
Lionmicro |
6-8 nti epitaxial wafers |
Quzhou puag expansion tiav; 8-nti epi peev xwm tshaj 400k wafers / hli |
|
Zhongxin Wafer |
12-nti polished wafers |
Lub peev xwm tshiab ntawm Hangzhou fab maj mam tso tawm; yields txuas ntxiv txhim kho |
|
Zhonghuan Tus Thawj Coj |
8-12 nti |
Yixing, Jiangsu puag muaj peev xwm txuas ntxiv ramping |
4. Supply-Demand Outlook: 2026H2‒2027
4.1 Luv luv Lub sij hawm (2026H2)
- 12-nti wafers:Kev siv peev xwm thiab tus nqi yuav nce ntxiv. Qhov kev thov rub los ntawm AI chips tseem nyob rau theem pib; Raws li CoWoS muaj peev xwm ua ob npaug, qhov kev txhawb nqa rau 12-nti wafer thov yuav pom tseeb dua hauv Q4.
- 8-nti wafers: Automotive-qib thiab kev lag luam- qib kev thov tseem nyob ruaj khov, tab sis lub zog ntawm cov neeg siv khoom siv hluav taws xob rov qab xav tau kev soj ntsuam txuas ntxiv.
- 6-nti thiab hauv qab no:Kev thov tag nrho yog tiaj tus, cuam tshuam los ntawm kev hloov pauv cov txiaj ntsig ntawm thib peb - tiam semiconductors (SiC/GaN) thiab kev xav tau sib txawv rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob ib txwm muaj.
4.2 Nruab nrab Lub sij hawm (2027 Outlook)
Ntau tus brokerages (CITIC, Huatai, Tianfeng) kwv yees:
Kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb silicon wafer xav tias yuav tshaj $ 16 billion hauv 2027, nrog rau 2026-2028 CAGR ntawm kwv yees li 8-10%. Qhov feem ntawm 12-nti wafers yuav nce los ntawm 68% tam sim no mus rau ntau dua 72%.
4.3 Txaus ntshai Cov xwm txheej rau Saib
- Geopolitical pheej hmoo: US export tswj ntawm cov khoom siv semiconductor rau Tuam Tshoj txuas ntxiv nruj. Txij li thaum lig 2025, kev txwv rau
- advanced- cov cuab yeej txheej txheem tau nthuav dav ntxiv, ua rau muaj teeb meem rau kev yuav khoom siv rau hauv tsev 12-nti wafer kab.
- Lub voj voog khoom volatility:Downstream fabs txuas ntxiv rub tawm cov khoom lag luam wafer hauv Q2‒Q3 2026, tab sis kev poob qis hauv cov khoom muag rov qab tuaj yeem ua tau yog tias qhov kev thov kawg poob qis ntawm qhov kev cia siab.
- Txauv tus nqi volatility:Nrog rau cov Japanese yen tseem tsis muaj zog, Japanese wafer makers txaus siab rau tus nqi kom zoo dua nyob rau hauv kev sib tw thoob ntiaj teb, muab tus nqi siab rau Suav manufacturers.
5. Kev cuam tshuam thiab kev pom zoo rau SiBranch Cov neeg siv khoom
Raws li tus kws tshaj lij silicon wafer tsum,SiBranch Microelectronicsqhia cov neeg siv khoom kom tsom mus rau cov hauv qab no:
1. Xauv hauv Ntev-Lub sij hawm Kev muab khoom Thaum ntxov
Thaum lub voj voog nce nqi, cov neeg siv khoom nrog kev noj tsis tu ncua raug qhia kom kaw hauv 6-12 lub hlis cov nqi cog lus nrog cov neeg muag khoom sai li sai tau kom tsis txhob muaj qhov muag tsis pom kev lag luam.
2. Them nyiaj Nco ntsoov Dummy/Test Wafer khoom
Nyob rau hauv ib lub voj voog, siab -kawg prime wafer peev yog qhov tseem ceeb rau IDMs thiab cov chaw tsim khoom loj. Cov khoom me me thiab nruab nrab -cov ntim ntim / cov tsev xeem tuaj yeem siv cov nqi zoo ntawm cov khoom siv kuaj wafers thiab cov wafers rov qab; SiBranch tuaj yeem muab cov kev daws teeb meem tag nrho.
3. Npaj Diversified Khoom Kab
Tshaj li tus qauv wafers, kev thov rau cov khoom sib txawv xws li SOI wafers, thermal oxide wafers thiab hlau -coated wafers kuj loj tuaj. Cov neeg siv khoom raug qhia kom npaj cov khoom lag luam sib txawv ua ntej.
|
SiBranch Core Products
|
Tshiab Loj Loj
|
6. Cov lus xaus
Kev ua lag luam silicon wafer hauv 2026 tab tom hloov los ntawm "oversupply" mus rau "cov qauv tsis txaus." AI-tsav siab- qhov kawg thov yuav yog lub hauv paus tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam kev loj hlob nyob rau hauv 2-3 xyoo tom ntej, thaum tawm tsam cov keeb kwm ntawm kev sib tw ntawm geopolitical, kev tsim-nce ntawm tus kheej- txaus nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam silicon wafer tau nkag mus rau theem tseem ceeb.
Rau txhua tus neeg koom nrog hauv cov saw hlau, cov yuam sij rau kev yeej yuav yog qhov kev sib tw ntawm lub voj voog no, ruaj ntseg cov khoom siv - sab nraud ua ntej, thiab nrhiav cov hauv kev hauv cov khoom sib txawv.
